As appeared in

More than three decades after seizing power in what became known as Indonesia’s "Year of Living Dangerously", a national convulsion of bloodletting which claimed more than 500,000 lives, President Suharto appeared intent on pushing his nation back to the brink, and beyond.

In the long tradition of third-world dictators under siege, the 76-year old leader dug in over the weekend, ordering the military to crack down on unrest and offering only cosmetic changes in response to near-universal calls for his resignation.

Three days after returning to Indonesia, Suharto had yet to address the nation. Television footage has shown him appearing smiling and relaxed, a sign that the aging leader is either oblivious to the seriousness of the situation or determined to ignore it.

The ill-organized opposition has now reached a critical juncture. It must keep up the pressure on Suharto or risk allowing the momentum to pass them by. But new demonstrations by students and their supporters could re-ignite violence and destruction by the poor and unemployed masses, sending the nation back into the abyss.

With tens of thousands of foreigners fleeing the country on commercial and chartered flights, it was clear Indonesia was doomed as long as Suharto remained in power. Even if he survives the immediate challenge, international business confidence is dead. There is no chance foreign investors will return until a new president is installed. That means the economy, which collapsed over the past six months, will grind to a halt, raising the specter of tens of millions of unemployed and widespread hunger.

"Even if he gets beyond this, he’ll spend the next five years under siege, if someone doesn’t manage to put a bullet in his head," said one foreign business analyst.

The turning point could come Wednesday. Student rallies are planned across the country to mark a patriotic holiday that, perhaps prophetically, marks "the rebirth of the nation". A failure by the opposition to stage a mass turnout could bolster the president’s position. How the armed forces respond will be equally critical.

The military, which holds the key to Indonesia’s future, continues to vacillate, with top commanders indicating their support for reform, but stopping short of confronting their commander-in-chief.

"Wiranto still has his feet on both sides of the fence," said a source close to the ruling circle, referring to the chief-of-staff. "The generals thought the old man would resign when he came back from Cairo. Now they’re caught between their duty to the state and their loyalty to him."

Further complicating the situation is a cultural aversion to speaking directly or challenging authority. That was demonstrated over the weekend as university rectors met with the president to convey student demands for his resignation.

"We held up the constitution and told him we think you understand what we mean to say," a spokesman for the group later told reporters, in a classic example of the subtlety and innuendo with which Indonesia’s dominant Javanese ethnic group communicates.

Even as the death toll from a week of violence climbed beyond 500, and the charred bodies of looters trapped in a series of shopping mall fires piled up in the morgues, Suharto sent word through an aide that he would reshuffle his cabinet in response to "the people’s demand for reform". More than a day later, he had yet to release any details.

Cabinet sources said Suharto’s daughter, known as Tutut, and his golfing buddy, timber baron Mohammed "Bob" Hasan, were among at least seven ministers being sacked. The pair represented the most egregious symbols of the nepotism, cronyism and corruption that have come to mark Suharto’s rule.

The reshuffle was widely condemned as too little, too late.

"What the people are demanding is a moral accounting, not another political maneuver," said former minister Sarwono Kusmaatadja. "It’s like a bad tooth. It needs to be pulled. A filling isn’t enough."

A consensus scenario appeared to be emerging among the country’s political elite, both within the opposition and in ruling circles, under which Vice President B.J. Habibie would become interim president and a "national unity" cabinet would be formed bringing together members of the current government and the opposition. The so-called MPR, the constitutional body that elected Suharto in March, would be convened within a year to choose a new president.

"But it all depends on someone having the guts to tell him to his face it is time to turn out the lights, and him agreeing," said James van Zorge, an American analyst of Indonesian politics. "That’s a big if."

Despite the widespread animosity to Suharto, the assumption in some Western circles that he would be punished, or at least exiled, flies in the face of a culture that values consensus above all else.

"It is very important that we allow the president to leave with dignity," said one source close to the cabinet. "Of course, some of his son’s and daughter’s companies would be nationalized, but they would still be treated with respect."